The present invention relates to methods of insuring against satellite failure. More particularly, the present invention relates to methods of obtaining insurance and protection against the launch of satellites into unintended non-operational Earth orbits.
The manufacture of communications, Earth observation, navigation and science satellites is experiencing a period of extraordinary growth that is expected to continue into the future. Present estimates indicate that approximately 70 large satellites are projected to be launched into earth orbit each year during the next ten years for both commercial and government uses resulting in almost 700 new Earth orbiting satellites. The satellites continue to increase in size, complexity and cost and with the increased number of satellites being produced, the satellite industry is estimated to obtain revenues of $171 billion in the year 2007.
The launch phase of a satellite deployment into orbit includes two basic steps performed in sequence. First, the satellite is launched from the Earth's surface through the atmosphere into space to a transfer orbit. Secondly, the satellite is transferred to a higher orbit, typically geosynchronous orbit. The first segment is typically conducted by a launch vehicle such as the Space Shuttle, Titan, Delta, Atlas, Arian, Long March or Proton rockets. Meanwhile, the second segment is typically performed by a transfer vehicle which may comprise the upper stage of the rocket or may comprise a perigee kick motor (PKM) or apogee kick motor (AKM) attached to the satellite. The launch phase is then considered complete when the satellite is separated from the transfer vehicle.
Unfortunately, a significant percentage of satellites fail due to their failure to reach their intended orbit or due to their failure to operate correctly once in orbit. In November 1992, a “90-day satellite salvage study” was conducted jointly by NASA and the International Technology Underwriters, Inc. (INTEC) to identify the commercial risk allocation due to satellite failure. The study evaluated the historical failure statistics of 328 large satellites having an on orbit replacement value of $170 million or greater which were launched between 1980 and 1992. Though this study was conducted several years ago, recent research indicates that the applicable percentages have not changed significantly over the past decade. Among the 328 satellites studied, 64 experienced some form of total or significant failure resulting in total loss as reflected in the table below.
Type Failure (328 launches)
PercentNumberof TotalAscent to LEO (“launch failure”)216.4LEO to higher orbit (“Boost Failure”)134.0Satellite during Checkout (C/O Failure)195.8Satellite during Operations (Ops Fail)113.4Successful26480.5Total328
This study reflects that of the 328 satellites, 34 (10.4%) of all large geostationary satellites that have been declared a total loss have been lost during the “launch phase” with the remaining satellite total losses occurring during on orbit check out or during subsequent lifetime operations. The risk of total loss of a satellite during the launch phase can be divided into two categories. The first category includes satellites that have suffered catastrophic failure of the launch vehicle accounting for 6.4% of all total losses. The second category, called “boost failure”, includes the total losses of satellites caused by the failure of the satellite to reach its intended orbit due to degradated performance of the launch vehicle or transfer vehicle, accounting for 4.0% of all total losses. Thus, in numerous instances, fully functional satellites are declared a total loss because the satellites have failed to reach their intended orbits. Assuming that this pattern continues, which it has for almost forty years, and assuming that 700 new Earth orbiting satellites will be launched in the next ten years, approximately 28 satellites will be launched (or 2.8 satellites per year) in the next ten years which are fully functional but will result as a total loss due to their inability to operate in an incorrect orbit.
If insured, the total sum of the spacecraft loss including launch expenses is paid by the insurance underwriters, typically $250 million or more for each failure. However, the primary business loss of a launch failure is usually the long delay in obtaining a new or replacement satellite which can take up to two to three years. This delay in obtaining a replacement satellite can cause the total loss of a planned business due to competition and market changes during the interim.
Attempts have been made to “recover” a few of these fully functional satellites in inoperable orbits. For example, after the Weststar 6 and Palapa B2 satellites were launched to a low Earth orbit instead of geosynchronous orbit due to failure of their solid rocket motors to properly fire, the satellites were retrieved in the Space Shuttle. The satellites were then refurbished on Earth and relaunched into correct orbits where they became fully functional. Meanwhile, Intelsat VI, a very large satellite intended for geosynchronous orbit, was inadvertently launched to a low Earth orbit due to miswiring between the satellite and its attached solid rocket motor. The Space Shuttle performed a recovery mission in which three astronauts conducted a complex extra vehicular activity (EVA) in order to remove the inoperable solid rocket motor and substitute it with a functional solid rocket motor. Thereafter, the solid rocket motor was remotely fired and transported the Intelsat 6 satellite to the correct orbit where the satellite was fully functional. Unfortunately, Shuttle launch and operations including EVA activities are very dangerous and extremely expensive.
Recently, an attempt has been made to overcome these risks to human life and high expenses by the development of a recovery mission wherein a remotely controlled extension spacecraft is made to attach to the satellite located in the unintended orbit. Using the guidance, navigation, control and propulsion systems of these extension spacecraft, the satellite is transported to its intended orbit. A complete description of this recovery mission is described in U.S. Pat. No. 6,017,000 which is incorporated herein by reference. The use of an extension spacecraft to move a satellite to its intended orbit is substantially less expensive than manned Space Shuttle missions which typically cost about $400-$500 million, and substantially less than the cost of manufacturing and launching a replacement satellite which typically cost between $250 million and $1.2 billion, as in the case of AF Milstar 2. However, the cost for the manufacture, launch and operation of the extension spacecraft to correct the satellite's orbit still costs $100 million.
Due to the high expenses and risks involved in attempting to recover a satellite, numerous satellites have been declared a total loss due to their launch to an inoperable orbit even though the satellite is fully functional. For example, since 1993 each of the following ten satellites could have been recovered by the Space Shuttle or by the use of an extension spacecraft.
Recent Recoverable Satellites
SatelliteLaunch VehicleBoost FailureCost/Loss ClaimsNavy UHF-1Atlas 1March 1993$187MJapan ETS-6H-2 AKMApril 1994$425MKoreasat-lDelta IIJune 1995 $64MChinaSat-7Long March 3June 1996$128MAsiaSat-3Proton/DMDecember 1997$220MJapan COMETSJapanese H-2January 1998$480MAF DSP-19Titan IV/IUSApril 1999$682MAF Milstar 2Titan IV/CentaurApril 1999$1,233M  Orion 3Delta III/CentaurMay 1999$265M
There is thus a significant need for a system that would reduce the risk to satellite owners of their satellite being launched into an incorrect orbit resulting in the total loss of the spacecraft or the high expenses of a recovery mission.
One way to reduce the risk of total loss of a satellite is to obtain conventional launch insurance. Typically conventional launch insurance is implemented as follows. First, a satellite owner determines the amount of insurance to be purchased for the satellite launch referred to herein as the “sum insured”. The sum insured may include just the cost to manufacture the satellite, but typically also includes the launch costs as well as the cost of insurance for the satellite and launch. Once the sum insured has been determined, an insurance broker attempts to obtain insurance coverage from a number of underwriters in the market, while at the same time attempting to obtain the lowest premium rate for his client. The underwriter establishes a premium rate for the satellite launch as a measure of the risk of launch. The premium rate may be a total percentage value of the sum insured incorporating the risks for various aspects of launch such as the risk of launch vehicle failure, boost failure, spacecraft failure at checkout and spacecraft failure during operations. In the alternative, the rate can be divided into separate categories. For example, the risk of launch can be divided into specific risks of launch failure and boost failure. The cost to the spacecraft owner of the insurance is thus a product of the sum insured times the total premium rate. This premium payment is paid by the satellite owner to the broker who typically separates the payment into two segments representing the payment insuring against launch vehicle failure and boost failure. The premium payment is then proportionally distributed to the several underwriters according to the amount of risk assumed by each. In the event of a launch failure, the underwriters are obligated to pay the total loss (sum insured) to the owner who may the use these proceeds to manufacture and launch a replacement satellite. Similarly, in the event of a boost failure, the underwriters are also obligated to pay the total loss (sum insured) to the owner who may the use these proceeds to manufacture and launch a replacement satellite. For purposes herein, the insurance broker and underwriters will be collectively referred to herein as a guarantor.
Unfortunately, conventional launch insurance does not assist in rescuing a satellite which is otherwise fully functional but placed in an unintended orbit during a boost failure.